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Party Polarization in Congress: A Social Networks Approach | Andrew Scott Waugh
; Liuyi Pei
; James H. Fowler
; Peter J. Mucha
; Mason A. Porter
; | Date: |
21 Jul 2009 | Abstract: | We use the network science concept of modularity to measure polarization in
the U.S. Congress. Modularity provides a conceptually-clear measure of
polarization that directly reveals both the number of relevant communities in
Congress and the strength of their divisions. Unlike measures based on spatial
models, modularity does not require assumptions about the shape of legislator
utilities, or the structure of the party system. Modularity can be used to
measure polarization across all Congresses, including those without a clear
party divide, thereby permitting the investigation of partisan polarization
across a broader range of historical contexts. Using modularity, we show that
party influence on Congressional communities varies widely over time. We
further show that modularity is a significant predictor of future majority
party changes in the House and Senate and that turnover is more prevalent at
medium levels of modularity. We utilize two individual-level variables, which
we call "divisiveness" and "solidarity", from modularity and show that they are
significant predictors of reelection success for individual House members,
helping to explain why partially-polarized Congresses are less stable. Our
results suggest that modularity can serve as an early-warning signal of
changing group dynamics, which are reflected only later by changes in formal
party labels. | Source: | arXiv, 0907.3509 | Services: | Forum | Review | PDF | Favorites |
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