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When the optimal is not the best: parameter estimation in complex biological models | | Diego Fernandez Slezak
; Cecilia Suarez
; Guillermo A. Cecchi
; Guillermo Marshall
; Gustavo Stolovitzky
; | | Date: |
18 Nov 2010 | | Abstract: | Background: The vast computational resources that became available during the
past decade enabled the development and simulation of increasingly complex
mathematical models of cancer growth. These models typically involve many free
parameters whose determination is a substantial obstacle to model development.
Direct measurement of biochemical parameters in vivo is often difficult and
sometimes impracticable, while fitting them under data-poor conditions may
result in biologically implausible values.
Results: We discuss different methodological approaches to estimate
parameters in complex biological models. We make use of the high computational
power of the Blue Gene technology to perform an extensive study of the
parameter space in a model of avascular tumor growth. We explicitly show that
the landscape of the cost function used to optimize the model to the data has a
very rugged surface in parameter space. This cost function has many local
minima with unrealistic solutions, including the global minimum corresponding
to the best fit.
Conclusions: The case studied in this paper shows one example in which model
parameters that optimally fit the data are not necessarily the best ones from a
biological point of view. To avoid force-fitting a model to a dataset, we
propose that the best model parameters should be found by choosing, among
suboptimal parameters, those that match criteria other than the ones used to
fit the model. We also conclude that the model, data and optimization approach
form a new complex system, and point to the need of a theory that addresses
this problem more generally. | | Source: | arXiv, 1011.4245 | | Services: | Forum | Review | PDF | Favorites | |
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