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The role of vegetables trade network in global epidemics | | Yong Min
; Jie Chang
; Xiaogang Jin
; Yang Zhong
; Ying Ge
; | | Date: |
8 Oct 2011 | | Abstract: | The outbreak of enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) in May 2011 warns
the potential threats of the world vegetables trade network (VTN) in spreading
fatal infectious diseases. The heterogeneous weight distribution and
multi-scale activity of intermediary networks affects the diffusion,
proliferation and extinction of epidemics. Here, we constructed a dual-weighted
VTN with 118 major countries and territories from FAO 2008 statistic data about
global vegetation production and trade, and develop a reaction-diffusion model
to simulate the epidemic behaviors in through VTN. We found an emerged
asymmetric threshold of epidemic on VTN, in which local proliferation within
nodes plays a more critical role than global diffusion in spreading of
EHEC-like diseases, i.e. sufficient local proliferation is the precondition for
global diffusion. We also found that a strong modularity on VTN structure,
which restricts the spreading of EHEC-like diseases; however, within the
communities, the diffusion is quick and easy. There is, moreover, a critical
"epidemic stem", in which a serial of positive feedback loop for amplifying the
proliferation and diffusion pathogens has been identified from entire VTN.
Surprisingly, statistical analysis shows a well consistency between theoretical
composition of stem and actual pattern of EHEC. The results provide a chance to
design gradient control strategies for controlling disease global diffusion.
Our analysis provided the first inspect of global epidemics mediated by trade
networks for improved control and immunity strategies in the future. | | Source: | arXiv, 1110.1724 | | Services: | Forum | Review | PDF | Favorites | |
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