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Magnetic Flux of EUV Arcade and Dimming Regions as a Relevant Parameter for Early Diagnostics of Solar Eruptions - Sources of Non-Recurrent Geomagnetic Storms and Forbush Decreases | | I. M. Chertok
; V. V. Grechnev
; A. V. Belov
; A. A. Abunin
; | | Date: |
11 Sep 2012 | | Abstract: | This study aims at the early diagnostics of geoeffectiveness of coronal mass
ejections (CMEs) from quantitative parameters of the accompanying EUV dimming
and arcade events. We study events of the 23th solar cycle, in which major
non-recurrent geomagnetic storms (GMS) with Dst <-100 nT are sufficiently
reliably identified with their solar sources in the central part of the disk.
Using the SOHO/EIT 195 A images and MDI magnetograms, we select significant
dimming and arcade areas and calculate summarized unsigned magnetic fluxes in
these regions at the photospheric level. The high relevance of this eruption
parameter is displayed by its pronounced correlation with the Forbush decrease
(FD) magnitude, which, unlike GMSs, does not depend on the sign of the Bz
component but is determined by global characteristics of ICMEs. Correlations
with the same magnetic flux in the solar source region are found for the GMS
intensity (at the first step, without taking into account factors determining
the Bz component near the Earth), as well as for the temporal intervals between
the solar eruptions and the GMS onset and peak times. The larger the magnetic
flux, the stronger the FD and GMS intensities are and the shorter the ICME
transit time is. The revealed correlations indicate that the main quantitative
characteristics of major non-recurrent space weather disturbances are largely
determined by measurable parameters of solar eruptions, in particular, by the
magnetic flux in dimming areas and arcades, and can be tentatively estimated in
advance with a lead time from 1 to 4 days. For GMS intensity, the revealed
dependencies allow one to estimate a possible value, which can be expected if
the Bz component is negative. | | Source: | arXiv, 1209.2208 | | Services: | Forum | Review | PDF | Favorites | |
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