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25 April 2024 |
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Article overview
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Epidemiological modeling of the 2005 French riots: a spreading wave and the role of contagion | | Laurent Bonnasse-Gahot
; Henri Berestycki
; Marie-Aude Depuiset
; Mirta B. Gordon
; Sebastian Roché
; Nancy Rodriguez
; Jean-Pierre Nadal
; | | Date: |
25 Jan 2017 | | Abstract: | As a large-scale instance of dramatic collective behavior, the 2005 French
riots started in a poor suburb of Paris, then spread in all of France, lasting
about three weeks. Remarkably, although there were no displacements of rioters,
the riot activity did traveled. Daily national police data to which we had
access have allowed us to take advantage of this natural experiment to explore
the dynamics of riot propagation. Here we show that an epidemic-like model,
with less than 10 free parameters and a single sociological variable
characterizing neighborhood deprivation, accounts quantitatively for the full
spatio-temporal dynamics of the riots. This is the first time that such
data-driven modeling involving contagion both within and between cities
(through geographic proximity or media) at the scale of a country is performed.
Moreover, we give a precise mathematical characterization to the expression
"wave of riots", and provide a visualization of the propagation around Paris,
exhibiting the wave in a way not described before. The remarkable agreement
between model and data demonstrates that geographic proximity played a major
role in the riot propagation, even though information was readily available
everywhere through media. Finally, we argue that our approach gives a general
framework for the modeling of spontaneous collective uprisings. | | Source: | arXiv, 1701.7479 | | Services: | Forum | Review | PDF | Favorites | |
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