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Towards a theoretical determination of the geographical probability distribution of meteoroid impacts on Earth | Jorge I. Zuluaga
; Mario Sucerquia
; | Date: |
17 Jan 2018 | Abstract: | Tunguska and Chelyabinsk impact events occurred inside a geographical area of
only 3.4\% of the Earth’s surface. Although two events hardly constitute a
statistically demonstration of a geographical pattern of impacts, their spatial
coincidence is at least tantalizing. To understand if this concurrence reflects
an underlying geographical and/or temporal pattern, we must aim at predicting
the spatio-temporal distribution of meteoroid impacts on Earth. For this
purpose we designed, implemented and tested a novel numerical technique, the
"Gravitational Ray Tracing" (GRT) designed to compute the relative impact
probability (RIP) on the surface of any planet. GRT is inspired by the
so-called ray-casting techniques used to render realistic images of complex 3D
scenes. In this paper we describe the method and the results of testing it at
the time of large impact events. Our findings suggest a non-trivial pattern of
impact probabilities at any given time on Earth. Locations at $60-90deg$ from
the apex are more prone to impacts, especially at midnight. Counterintuitively,
sites close to apex direction has the lowest RIP, while in the antapex RIP are
slightly larger than average. We present here preliminary maps of RIP at the
time of Tunguska and Chelyabinsk events and found no evidence of a spatial or
temporal pattern, suggesting that their coincidence was fortuitous. We apply
the GRT method to compute theoretical RIP at the location and time of 394 large
fireballs. Although the predicted spatio-temporal impact distribution matches
marginally the observed events, we successfully predict their impact speed
distribution. | Source: | arXiv, 1801.5720 | Services: | Forum | Review | PDF | Favorites |
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