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Steve: A hierarchical Bayesian model for Supernova Cosmology | | S. R. Hinton
; T. M. Davis
; A. G. Kim
; D. Brout
; C. B. D'Andrea
; R. Kessler
; J. Lasker
; C. Lidman
; E. Macaulay
; A. Möller
; M. Sako
; D. Scolnic
; M. Smith
; R. C. Wolf
; M. Childress
; E. Morganson
; S. Allam
; J. Annis
; S. Avila
; E. Bertin
; D. Brooks
; D. L. Burke
; A. Carnero Rosell
; M. Carrasco Kind
; J. Carretero
; C. E. Cunha
; L. N. da Costa
; C. Davis
; J. De Vicente
; D. L. DePoy
; P. Doel
; T. F. Eifler
; B. Flaugher
; P. Fosalba
; J. Frieman
; J. García-Bellido
; E. Gaztanaga
; D. W. Gerdes
; R. A. Gruendl
; J. Gschwend
; G. Gutierrez
; W. G. Hartley
; D. L. Hollowood
; K. Honscheid
; E. Krause
; K. Kuehn
; N. Kuropatkin
; O. Lahav
; M. Lima
; M. A. G. Maia
; M. March
; J. L. Marshall
; F. Menanteau
; R. Miquel
; R. L. C. Ogando
; A. A. Plazas
; E. Sanchez
; V. Scarpine
; R. Schindler
; M. Schubnell
; S. Serrano
; I. Sevilla-Noarbe
; M. Soares-Santos
; F. Sobreira
; E. Suchyta
; G. Tarle
; D. Thomas
; V. Vikram
; Y. Zhang
; | | Date: |
7 Nov 2018 | | Abstract: | We present a new Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) named Steve for performing
type Ia supernova (SN Ia) cosmology fits. This advances previous works by
including an improved treatment of Malmquist bias, accounting for additional
sources of systematic uncertainty, and increasing numerical efficiency. Given
light curve fit parameters, redshifts, and host-galaxy masses, we fit Steve
simultaneously for parameters describing cosmology, SN Ia populations, and
systematic uncertainties. Selection effects are characterised using Monte-Carlo
simulations. We demonstrate its implementation by fitting realisations of SN Ia
datasets where the SN Ia model closely follows that used in Steve . Next, we
validate on more realistic SNANA simulations of SN Ia samples from the Dark
Energy Survey and low-redshift surveys (DES Collaboration 2018). These
simulated datasets contain more than $60,000$ SNe Ia, which we use to evaluate
biases in the recovery of cosmological parameters, specifically the
equation-of-state of dark energy, $w$. This is the most rigorous test of a BHM
method applied to SN Ia cosmology fitting, and reveals small $w$-biases that
depend on the simulated SN Ia properties, in particular the intrinsic SN Ia
scatter model. This $w$-bias is less than $0.03$ on average, less than half the
statistical uncertainty on $w$. These simulation test results are a concern for
BHM cosmology fitting applications on large upcoming surveys, and therefore
future development will focus on minimising the sensitivity of Steve to the SN
Ia intrinsic scatter model. | | Source: | arXiv, 1811.2381 | | Services: | Forum | Review | PDF | Favorites | |
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