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23 April 2024 |
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Can we predict the impact conditions of meter-sized meteoroids? | | Jorge I. Zuluaga [SEAP/IF/UdeA]
; Pablo A. Cuartas-Restrepo [SEAP/IF/UdeA]
; Jhonatan Ospina [SAA/CAMO]
; Mario Sucerquia [SEAP/IF/UdeA]
; | | Date: |
11 Feb 2019 | | Abstract: | A few meter-sized meteoroids impact the atmosphere of the Earth per year.
Most (if not all) of them are undetectable before the impact and hence,
predicting where and how they will fall, seems to be impossible. In this letter
we show compelling evidence that we can constrain, in advance, the dynamical
and geometrical conditions of an impact. For this purpose, we analyze the
well-documented case of the Chelyabinsk impact and the more recent and smaller
Cuba event, whose conditions we additionally estimate and provide here. After
applying the {em Gravitational Ray Tracing} algorithm (GRT) to theoretically
"predict" the impact conditions of the aforementioned events, we find that the
speed, incoming direction and (marginally) the orbital elements, can be
constrained in advance, starting only on one hand, with the geographical
location and time of the impact, and on the other hand, with the distribution
in configuration space of Near Earth Objects (NEOs). Any improvement in our
capability to predict or at least to constrain impact properties of
medium-sized and large meteoroids, will help us to be better prepared for its
potentially damaging effects. | | Source: | arXiv, 1902.3980 | | Services: | Forum | Review | PDF | Favorites | |
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