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Estimating required 'lockdown' cycles before immunity to SARS-CoV-2: Model-based analyses of susceptible population sizes, 'S0', in seven European countries including the UK and Ireland | | Rosalyn J. Moran
; Erik D. Fagerholm
; Maell Cullen
; Jean Daunizeau
; Mark P. Richardson
; Steven Williams
; Federico Turkheimer
; Rob Leech
; Karl J. Friston
; | | Date: |
9 Apr 2020 | | Abstract: | We used Bayesian model inversion to estimate epidemic parameters from the
reported case and death rates from seven countries using data from late January
2020 to April 5th 2020. Two distinct generative model types were employed:
first a continuous time dynamical-systems implementation of a
Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model and second: a partially
observable Markov Decision Process (MDP) or hidden Markov model (HMM)
implementation of an SEIR model. Both models parameterise the size of the
initial susceptible population (S0), as well as epidemic parameters. Parameter
estimation (data fitting) was performed using a standard Bayesian scheme
(variational Laplace) designed to allow for latent unobservable states and
uncertainty in model parameters.
Both models recapitulated the dynamics of transmissions and disease as given
by case and death rates. The peaks of the current waves were predicted to be in
the past for four countries (Italy, Spain, Germany and Switzerland) and to
emerge in 0.5-2 weeks in Ireland and 1-3 weeks in the UK. For France one model
estimated the peak within the past week and the other in the future in two
weeks. Crucially, Maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimates of S0 for each country
indicated effective population sizes of below 20% (of total population size),
under both the continuous time and HMM models. With a Bayesian weighted average
across all seven countries and both models, we estimated that 6.4% of the total
population would be immune. From the two models the maximum percentage of the
effective population was estimated at 19.6% of the total population for the UK,
16.7% for Ireland, 11.4% for Italy, 12.8% for Spain, 18.8% for France, 4.7% for
Germany and 12.9% for Switzerland.
Our results indicate that after the current wave, a large proportion of the
total population will remain without immunity. | | Source: | arXiv, 2004.5060 | | Services: | Forum | Review | PDF | Favorites | |
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