| | |
| | |
Stat |
Members: 3643 Articles: 2'487'895 Articles rated: 2609
28 March 2024 |
|
| | | |
|
Article overview
| |
|
A new estimation method for COVID-19 time-varying reproduction number using active cases | A. Hasan
; H. Susanto
; R. Kusdiantara
; E.R.M. Putri
; P. Hadisoemarto
; N. Nuraini
; | Date: |
6 Jun 2020 | Abstract: | We propose a new method to estimate the time-varying effective (or
instantaneous) reproduction number of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19).
The method is based on a discrete-time stochastic augmented compartmental model
that describes the virus transmission. A two-stage estimation method, which
combines the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to estimate reported state variables
(active and removed cases) and a low pass filter based on a rational transfer
function to remove short term fluctuations of the reported cases, is used with
case uncertainties that are assumed to follow a Gaussian distribution. Our
method does not require information regarding serial intervals, which makes the
estimation procedure simpler without reducing the quality of the estimate. We
show that the proposed method is comparable to common approaches, e.g.,
age-structured and new cases based sequential Bayesian models. We also apply it
to COVID-19 cases in the Scandinavian countries: Denmark, Sweden, and Norway,
where we see a delay of about four days in predicting the epidemic peak. | Source: | arXiv, 2006.3766 | Services: | Forum | Review | PDF | Favorites |
|
|
No review found.
Did you like this article?
Note: answers to reviews or questions about the article must be posted in the forum section.
Authors are not allowed to review their own article. They can use the forum section.
browser claudebot
|
| |
|
|
|
| News, job offers and information for researchers and scientists:
| |