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25 April 2024 |
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Prediction of the in situ coronal mass ejection rate for solar cycle 25: Implications for Parker Solar Probe in situ observations | | Christian Möstl
; Andreas J. Weiss
; Rachel L. Bailey
; Martin A. Reiss
; Ute V. Amerstorfer
; Tanja Amerstorfer
; Jürgen Hinterreiter
; Maike Bauer
; Scott W. McIntosh
; Noé Lugaz
; David Stansby
; | | Date: |
29 Jul 2020 | | Abstract: | The Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and Solar Orbiter missions are designed to make
groundbreaking observations of the Sun and interplanetary space within this
decade. We show that a particularly interesting in situ observation of an
interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) by PSP may arise during close solar
flybys ($< 0.1$ AU). During these times, the same magnetic flux rope inside an
ICME could be observed in situ by PSP twice, by impacting its frontal part as
well as its leg. Investigating the odds of this situation, we forecast the ICME
rate in solar cycle 25 based on 2 models for the sunspot number (SSN): (1) the
consensus prediction of an expert panel in 2019 (maximum SSN = 115), and (2) a
prediction by McIntosh et al. (2020, maximum SSN = 232). We link the SSN to the
observed ICME rates in solar cycles 23 and 24 with the Richardson and Cane list
and our own ICME catalog with a linear fit. We calculate that between 2 and 7
ICMEs will be observed by PSP at heliocentric distances $< 0.1$ AU until 2025,
including 1$sigma$ uncertainties. We then model the potential flux rope
signatures of such a double-crossing event with the semi-empirical 3DCORE flux
rope model, showing a telltale elevation of the radial magnetic field component
$B_R$ and a sign reversal in the component $B_N$ normal to the solar equator,
which is in contrast to the classic field rotation in the first encounter. This
holds considerable promise to determine the structure of CMEs close to their
origin in the solar corona. | | Source: | arXiv, 2007.14743 | | Services: | Forum | Review | PDF | Favorites | |
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