|
| | | | |
| | | |
| Stat |
Members: 3645
Articles: 2'504'928
Articles rated: 2609
25 April 2024 |
|
| | | | |
|
Article overview
| |
|
|
Scaling Analysis and Evolution Equation of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index Fluctuations | | C. Collette
; M. Ausloos
; | | Date: |
29 Jun 2004 | | Subject: | Chaotic Dynamics; Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems; Statistical Mechanics; Computational Physics | nlin.CD cond-mat.stat-mech nlin.AO physics.comp-ph | | Affiliation: | SUPRATECS, Liege | | Abstract: | The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) monthly index is studied from 1825 till 2002 in order to identify the scaling ranges of its fluctuations upon different delay times and to find out whether or not it can be regarded as a Markov process. A Hurst rescaled range analysis and a detrended fluctuation analysis both indicate the existence of weakly persistent long range time correlations for the whole scaling range and time span hereby studied. Such correlations are similar to Brownian fluctuations. The Fokker-Planck equation is derived and Kramers-Moyal coefficients estimated from the data. They are interpreted in terms of a drift and a diffusion coefficient as in fluid mechanics. All partial distribution functions of the NAO monthly index fluctuations have a form close to a Gaussian, for all time lags, in agreement with the findings of the scaling analyses. This indicates the lack of predictive power of the present NAO monthly index. Yet there are some deviations for large (and thus rare) events. Whence suggestions for other measurements are made if some improved predictability of the weather/climate in the North Atlantic is of interest. The subsequent Langevin equation of the NAO signal fluctuations is explicitly written in terms of the diffusion and drift parameters, and a characteristic time scale for these is given in appendix. | | Source: | arXiv, nlin.CD/0406068 | | Services: | Forum | Review | PDF | Favorites | |
|
|
No review found.
Did you like this article?
Note: answers to reviews or questions about the article must be posted in the forum section.
Authors are not allowed to review their own article. They can use the forum section.
browser Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)
|
| |
|
|
|
|
News, job offers and information for researchers and scientists:
| |
REGISTER