| | |
| | |
Stat |
Members: 3645 Articles: 2'501'711 Articles rated: 2609
20 April 2024 |
|
| | | |
|
Article forum
| |
|
Experts' earning forecasts: bias, herding and gossamer information | Olivier Guedj
; Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
; | Rating: | Members: 3.5/5 (1 reader) | Visitors: 2.5/5 (2 visitors) | Date: |
4 Oct 2004 | Subject: | Other | cond-mat.other | Abstract: | We study the statistics of earning forecasts of US, EU, UK and JP stocks during the period 1987-2004. We confirm, on this large data set, that financial analysts are on average over-optimistic and show a pronounced herding behavior. These effects are time dependent, and were particularly strong in the early nineties and during the Internet bubble. We furthermore find that their forecast ability is, in relative terms, quite poor and comparable in quality, a year ahead, to the simplest `no change’ forecast. As a result of herding, analysts agree with each other five to ten times more than with the actual result. We have shown that significant differences exist between US stocks and EU stocks, that may partly be explained as a company size effect. Interestingly, herding effects appear to be stronger in the US than in the Eurozone. Finally, we study the correlation of errors across stocks and show that significant sectorization occurs, some sectors being easier to predict than others. These results add to the list of arguments suggesting that the tenets of Efficient Market Theory are untenable. | Source: | arXiv, cond-mat/0410079 | Services: | Forum | Review | PDF | Favorites |
|
|
No message found in this article forum.
You have a question or message about this article?
Ask the community and write a message in the forum.
If you want to rate this article, please use the review section..
To add a message in the forum, you need to login or register first. (free): registration page
|
| |
|
|
|
| News, job offers and information for researchers and scientists:
| |