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Article overview
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High host density favors greater virulence: a model of parasite-host dynamics based on multi-type branching processes | Konstantin Borovkov
; Robert Day
; Timothy Rice
; | Date: |
1 Sep 2011 | Abstract: | We use a multitype continuous time Markov branching process model to describe
the dynamics of the spread of parasites of two types that can mutate into each
other in a common host population. Instead of using a single virulence
characteristic which is typical of most mathematical models for infectious
diseases, our model uses a combination of two characteristics: lethality and
transmissibility. This makes the model capable of reproducing the empirically
observed fact that the increase in the host density can lead to the prevalence
of the more virulent pathogen type. We provide some numerical illustrations and
discuss the effects of the size of the enclosure containing the host population
on the encounter rate in our model that plays the key role in determining what
pathogen type will eventually prevail. We also present a multistage extension
of the model to situations where there are several populations and parasites
can be transmitted from one of them to another. | Source: | arXiv, 1109.0044 | Services: | Forum | Review | PDF | Favorites |
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