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Article overview
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Geometric persistence and distributional trends in worldwide terrorism | | James Chok
; Nick James
; Max Menzies
; Aaron Milner
; Cas Milner
; | | Date: |
1 Jan 2023 | | Abstract: | This paper introduces new methods for studying the prevalence of terrorism
around the world and over time. Our analysis treats spatial prevalence of
terrorism, the changing profile of groups carrying out the acts of terrorism,
and trends in how many attacks take place over time. First, we use a
time-evolving cluster analysis to show that the geographic distribution of
regions of high terrorist activity remain relatively consistent over time.
Secondly, we use new metrics, inspired from geometry and probability, to track
changes in the distributions of which groups are performing the terrorism. We
identify times at which this distribution changes significantly and countries
where the time-varying breakdown is most and least homogeneous. We observe
startling geographic patterns, with the greatest heterogeneity from Africa.
Finally, we use a new implementation of distances between distributions to
group countries according to their incidence profiles over time. This analysis
can aid in highlighting structural similarities in outbreaks of extreme
behavior and the most and least significant public policies in minimizing a
country’s terrorism. | | Source: | arXiv, 2301.00408 | | Services: | Forum | Review | PDF | Favorites | |
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