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24 June 2024
 
  » arxiv » 2302.00185

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Optimal timing for power plant maintenance in the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas in a changing climate
Hugh Daigle ; Joshua D. Rhodes ; Michael E. Webber ; Aidan Pyrcz ;
Date 1 Feb 2023
AbstractIn this study, we analyzed data for the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) to assess shoulder seasons -- that is, the 30 days of lowest total energy use and peak demand in the spring and fall -- and whether their occurrence has changed over time. We found that, over the period 1996--2022, the shoulder seasons for total energy use never started later than March 28 nor earlier than October 12; while those for peak demand never started later than March 23 nor earlier than October 13. This timing corresponded well with the minimum of total degree days over the period. In a longer-term temperature record going back to 1959, the minimum in degree days in the spring moved earlier, from early March to early February, and in the fall moved later, from early to mid-November. Future predictions of warming temperatures suggest that these minima may merge into a single annual minimum in December or January by 2036, which means that the shoulder season -- based on average degree days over a monthlong span -- could move to a time when there is a non-trivial risk of 1-day record peaks from winter storms. These shifts will make the occurrence of spring shoulder season more erratic, potentially complicating efforts to maintain generation reliability.
Source arXiv, 2302.00185
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