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Can we predict how big will be the next earthquake? | | Filippo Caruso
; Alessandro Pluchino
; Vito Latora
; Sergio Vinciguerra
; Andrea Rapisarda
; | | Date: |
5 Jun 2006 | | Subject: | Statistical Mechanics | | Abstract: | Statistical features of earthquakes catalogs can be described within a self-organized criticality scenario taking into account long range interactions, i.e. the dissipative Olami-Feder-Christensen model on a small world topology. The Probability Density Functions (PDFs) for the avalanche size differences at different times have fat tails with a q-Gaussian shape when finite-size scaling is present. This behaviour does not depend on the time interval adopted and is found also for real data, when considering energy differences of successive events. Such a result can be analytically understood if the sizes (released energies) of the avalanches (earthquakes) have no correlations. Our findings support the hypothesis that a self-organized criticality mechanism with long range interactions is at the origin of seismic events and indicate that it is not possible to predict the magnitude of the next earthquake knowing those of the previous ones. | | Source: | arXiv, cond-mat/0606118 | | Services: | Forum | Review | PDF | Favorites | |
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