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26 April 2024

» pubmed » pmid10678823

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Interpreting differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere
B D Santer ; T M Wigley ; D J Gaffen ; L Bengtsson ; C Doutriaux ; J S Boyle ; M Esch ; J J Hnilo ; P D Jones ; G A Meehl ; E Roeckner ; K E Taylor ; M F Wehner ;
Date:	18 Feb 2000
Journal:	Science, 287 (5456), 1227-32
Abstract:	Estimated global-scale temperature trends at Earth’s surface (as recorded by thermometers) and in the lower troposphere (as monitored by satellites) diverge by up to 0.14 degrees C per decade over the period 1979 to 1998. Accounting for differences in the spatial coverage of satellite and surface measurements reduces this differential, but still leaves a statistically significant residual of roughly 0.1 degrees C per decade. Natural internal climate variability alone, as simulated in three state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models, cannot completely explain this residual trend difference. A model forced by a combination of anthropogenic factors and volcanic aerosols yields surface-troposphere temperature trend differences closest to those observed.
Source:	PubMed, pmid10678823 doi: 8280
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