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26 April 2024 |
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Article overview
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Young People's Burden: Requirement of Negative CO2 Emissions | | James Hansen
; Makiko Sato
; Pushker Kharecha
; Karina von Schuckmann
; David J Beerling
; Junji Cao
; Shaun Marcott
; Valerie Masson-Delmotte
; Michael J Prather
; Eelco J Rohling
; Jeremy Shakun
; Pete Smith
; | | Date: |
19 Sep 2016 | | Abstract: | The rapid rise of global temperature that began about 1975 continues at a
mean rate of about 0.18 degC/decade, with the current annual temperature
exceeding 1.25 degC relative to 1880-1920. Global temperature has just reached
a level similar to the mean level in the prior interglacial (Eemian) period,
when sea level was several meters higher than today, and if it long remains at
this level, slow amplifying feedbacks will lead to greater climate change and
consequences. The growth rate of climate forcing due to human-caused greenhouse
gases (GHGs) increased over 20% in the past decade mainly due to resurging
growth of CH4, thus making it increasingly difficult to achieve targets such as
limiting global warming to 1.5 degC or reducing atmospheric CO2 below 350 ppm.
Such targets now require "negative emissions", i.e., extraction of CO2 from the
atmosphere. If rapid phasedown of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, most of
the necessary CO2 extraction can take place via improved agricultural and
forestry practices, including reforestation and steps to improve soil fertility
and increase its carbon content. In this case, the magnitude and duration of
global temperature excursion above the natural range of the current
interglacial (Holocene) could be limited and irreversible climate impacts could
be minimized. In contrast, continued high fossil fuel emissions by the current
generation would place a burden on young people to undertake massive
technological CO2 extraction, if they are to limit climate change. Proposed
methods of extraction such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)
or air capture of CO2 imply minimal estimated costs of 104-570 trillion dollars
this century, with large risks and uncertain feasibility. Continued high fossil
fuel emissions unarguably sentences young people to either a massive, possibly
implausible cleanup or growing deleterious climate impacts or both. | | Source: | arXiv, 1609.5878 | | Services: | Forum | Review | PDF | Favorites | |
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