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27 April 2024 |
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Analysis of COVID-19 infection waves in Tokyo by Avrami equation | | Yoshihiko Takase
; | | Date: |
26 Oct 2021 | | Abstract: | The purpose of this study was to simulate all COVID-19 infection waves in
Tokyo, the capital of Japan, by phase transformation dynamics theory, and to
quantitatively analyze the detailed structure of the waveform for estimating
the cause. The whole infection wave in Tokyo was basically expressed by the
superposition of the 5 major waves as in Japan as a whole. Among these waves,
the detailed structure was seen in the 3rd and the 5th waves, where the number
of infections increased remarkably due to the holidays. It was characterized as
"New Year holiday effect" for New Year holidays, "Tokyo Olympics holiday
effect" for Olympics holidays, and "Delta variant effect" for the replacement
of the virus with Delta variant. Since this method had high simulation accuracy
for the cumulative number of infections, it was effective in estimating the
cause, the number of infections in the near future and the vaccination effect
by quantitative analysis of the detailed structure of the waveform. | | Source: | arXiv, 2110.13449 | | Services: | Forum | Review | PDF | Favorites | |
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