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Stochastic modeling of a serial killer | | M. V. Simkin
; V. P. Roychowdhury
; | | Date: |
12 Jan 2012 | | Abstract: | We analyze the time pattern of the activity of a serial killer, who during
twelve years had murdered 53 people. The plot of the cumulative number of
murders as a function of time is of "Devil’s staircase" type. The distribution
of the intervals between murders (step length) follows a power law with the
exponent of 1.4. We propose a model according to which the serial killer
commits murders when neuronal excitation in his brain exceeds certain
threshold. We model this neural activity as a branching process, which in turn
is approximated by a random walk. As the distribution of the random walk return
times is a power law with the exponent 1.5, the distribution of the
inter-murder intervals is thus explained. We confirm analytical results by
numerical simulation. | | Source: | arXiv, 1201.2458 | | Services: | Forum | Review | PDF | Favorites | |
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